December live cattle futures failed to take out the previous day's high but did manage to mark a new closing high for the move. With a risk-on tone in the outside markets following yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, we would think that would spill into momentum for cattle futures. The next upside objective for the December contract comes in from 181.325-182.07. Above that and you're looking at a move to 183.57-184.225 which represents the origin of the breakdown that started in the first two days of August. Seasonally the back half of September can be tough for the market to rally, but we do see well defined strength once we turn the calendar over to October (see chart below).
Yesterday's 5 area average for live steers was at 183.16. Cutout values were weaker with choice cuts down 2.53 to 301.38 and select cuts down 2.47 to 289.75. Daily slaughter was reported at 125k head, in line with last week and year.
Resistance: 181.325-182.07, 183.57-184.225*
Pivot: 179.10-179.97
Support: 175.72-176.10, 173.17-173.87
Weekly Export Sales Beef: Net sales of 15,500 MT for 2024 were up 36 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Seasonal Tendency Update Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Below is a look at this year's price action (black line) VS price averages for December live cattle over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods.
Provided by SeasonAlgo
Feeder Cattle (October) Feeder cattle are struggling to get out above resistance with conviction. With that said, the double bottom remains intact and the chart still looks constructive. If the Bulls can chew through resistance from 242.75-243.45 we could see the market, make an attempt to rally towards 250. With that said, seasonal tendencies for Feeder cattle are weaker than that of live cattle, so expectations should be tempered some. If the market were able to make that move higher, we would look at putting our bias back into bearish territory.
Resistance: 242.75-243.45*
Pivot: 239.62-240.15
Support: 236.20-236.75, 232.75-233.95***
Seasonal Tendency Update Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Below is a look at this year's price action (black line) VS price averages for October feeder cattle over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods.
Provided by SeasonAlgo
Stay ahead of the herd!
Subscribe to our daily Livestock Roundup for exclusive insights into Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle, and Lean Hogs. Get access to our proprietary trading levels and actionable market biases delivered straight to your inbox—every day.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition. With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500 Performance Disclaimer Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
On the date of publication,
Oliver Sloup
did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy
here.
